eBay Getting its Groove Back?
Investors have been very optimistic about eBay’s prospects. Today the stock is hovering around $22.00 – more than doubling since it’s March 9th low of $9.91. eBay’s 2nd quarter earnings looked promising and the metrics look like eBay is finally capitalizing on the weak economy.
eBay stock price since March 9th, 2009
I wanted to provide data that would give investors as much information about eBay so they can make educated decisions about their investments.
First, let me post here my own tables showing quarterly and annual revenue growth statistics.
click to enlarge
As you can see, revenue started contracting in the Q3 of 2008. This trend was not reversed until this most recent quarter when eBay's management was finally able to stem the bleeding - an impressive feat in this economy. I base my Q3 and Q4 forecasts on the 2.51% sequential growth trend of Q2
Annually you see that eBay is on track to record a slight decrease in revenue. Again, this is based on the current trajectory from Q2. If eBay continues to execute and produce a strong Q3 and Q4 - we may see record revenues for 2009 which would be huge for the eBay investment community. There is a lot of opportunity here - with the marketplaces improving and Paypal/Skype growing healthily - it is a big possibility
Make sure you take advantage of eBay’s own investor page. eBay’s investor page has more then just regular earnings reports. Detailed PowerPoint decks and investor presentations are stored here.
One of the more essential presentations was the presentation eBay gave for analyst day. It's a large powerpoint deck (over 200 slides - 2009 Analyst Presentation (14 megs).
Another great site is Medved.net eBay Auction Counts. The site is a treasure trove of information and monitors eBay’s pages 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, at 1.5 hour intervals for their auction counts and now, the sell-through statistics.
A look at the 2009 auction counts show a huge increase in listings. This is especially positive since the 2nd and 3rd quarter traditional have been eBay’s weakest and usually have a drop in listings. Having growth during these times is, I believe, a testament to eBay’s counter-cyclical nature. Some people have called eBay “recession proof”. I believe as the economy continues to struggle and more and more people are out of work – that old doohickey that they bought during the boom times are getting listed on eBay – conversely, people with limited budgets wouldn’t mind a “like new” doo-dad if they can save some extra money.
The next sites that are useful are traffic rankings for ebay’s properties. You should always use different sources to come to a sort of “average” traffic ranking since ranking sites you their own type of data gathering. More often then not, the true ranking lies somewhere between different sites.
The two I use are Alexa.com
Neilsen Online
For Skype usage, The Borderless Communicator is essential. This site records a huge amount of user information and has shown steady cyclical growth for Skype.
I hope readers of this posting find this information useful.
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